Market Watch - Home Sales Were up in January 2024 in Comparison to January 2023

We had a positive start to 2024. The Bank of Canada expects the rate of inflation to recede as we move through the year. This would support lower interest rates which would bolster home buyers' confidence to move back into the market. First-time buyers currently facing high average rents would benefit from lower mortgage rates, making the move to homeownership more affordable.

Once the Bank of Canada starts cutting its policy rate, likely in the second half of 2024, expect home sales to pick up even further. There will be more competition between buyers in 2024 as demand picks up and the supply of listings remains constrained. The result will be upward pressure on selling prices over the next two years.

Ontario - Home Sales Were Up in January 2024 in Comparison to January 2023

Toronto 5 Feb, 2023 -- Home sales were up in January 2024 in comparison to January 2023. This annual increase came as some homebuyers started to benefit from lower borrowing costs associated with fixed-rate mortgage products. New listings were also up year-over-year but at a lesser annual rate compared to sales. The resulting tighter market conditions when compared to the same period a year earlier, potentially points toward renewed price growth as we move into the spring market.

“We had a positive start to 2024. The Bank of Canada expects the rate of inflation to recede as we move through the year. This would support lower interest rates which would bolster home buyers' confidence to move back into the market. First-time buyers currently facing high average rents would benefit from lower mortgage rates, making the move to homeownership more affordable,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce.

There were 4,223 sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in January 2024 – an increase of more than one-third compared to January 2022. The number of new listings was also up year-over-year but by a lesser annual rate of approximately 6%. Stronger sales growth relative to listings suggests buyers experienced tighter market conditions compared to a year ago.

On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and new listings were up. Sales increased more than listings which means market conditions tightened relative to December 2023.

“Once the Bank of Canada starts cutting its policy rate, likely in the second half of 2024, expect home sales to pick up even further. There will be more competition between buyers in 2024 as demand picks up and the supply of listings remains constrained. The result will be upward pressure on selling prices over the next two years,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite in January 2024 was down by less than one% year-over-year in January. The average selling price was down by 1% year-over-year to $1,026,703. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price also trended lower.

“While housing market conditions are expected to improve with lower borrowing costs, there are still several policy issues that need to be addressed. At the federal level, more reflection on the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institution (OSFI) mortgage stress test is required, especially to its application at different points in the interest rate cycle. The focus for the Province needs to remain on building 1.5 million new homes. At the municipal level, raising property taxes without consistent support from the federal and provincial governments won’t eliminate Toronto’s structural deficit. Helping first-time homebuyers get into the ownership market will ease movement across the entire spectrum and relieve pressure on the rental market,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Ottawa’s MLS® Market Thawed in January but Sales Still Slow

February 6, 2024 -- The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board totaled 629 units in January 2024. This was an increase of 16.5% from January 2023.

Home sales were 10.7% below the five-year average and 3.9% below the 10-year average for the month of January.

“Ottawa’s market activity is seeing positive gains over last year but it’s still a relatively quiet market even by pre-pandemic standards,” says OREB President Curtis Fillier. “While REALTORS® are telling us there’s lots of showing activity — probably thanks in part to the forgiving winter thus far — it’s not all translating to sales. This tells us that buyers are back out there looking, but still approaching cautiously. During the pandemic market, buyers had to move quickly and sometimes settle for a property that didn’t check all their boxes. Today, buyers are using the slower market to take the time needed to find their perfect place. Sellers would be well-advised to adjust their expectations and thoughtfully consider their pricing and timing strategy using the negotiating expertise and hyper-local data their REALTOR® can provide.”

“Ottawa’s market conditions can fluctuate quickly, though, because our supply is chronically low,” adds Brandon Reay, OREB’s policy and external relations manager. “Ottawa needs more suitable and affordable homes to address the housing crisis, and we need to increase density to meet population demands. We can’t restore and grow upon the market activity Ottawa saw five and ten years ago without more houses for people to buy. OREB recommends direct solutions for meaningful policy change, including streamlining the process at the Ontario Land Tribunal, eliminating exclusionary zoning, and permitting four units on residential lots. To meet the aggressive housing targets, we need to close the labour gap with investments in colleges and trade schools. We don’t need any more reactionary and distracting policy, like the federal government’s extension of the foreign buyers ban.”

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.

The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $621,600 in January 2024, a gain of 3.2% from January 2023.

The benchmark price for single-family homes was $703,500, up 3.7% on a year-over-year basis in January.

By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $462,200, down 2.1% compared to a year earlier.

The benchmark apartment price was $418,500, up 3.7% from year-ago levels.

The average price of homes sold in January 2024 was $631,722, increasing 1.8% from January 2023.

The dollar volume of all home sales in January 2024 was $397.3 million, up 18.6% from the same month in 2023.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

The number of new listings saw an increase of 7.3% from January 2023. There were 1,271 new residential listings in January 2024. New listings were 17.5% above the five-year average and 0.8% above the 10-year average for the month of January.

Active residential listings numbered 1,961 units on the market at the end of January 2024, a gain of 4.5% from the end of January 2023.

Active listings were 57.4% above the five-year average and 16.6% below the 10-year average for the month of January. Months of inventory numbered 3.1 at the end of January 2024, down from the 3.5 months recorded at the end of January 2023. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

British Columbia - Home Sales Across Metro Vancouver’s Housing Market off to Strong Start in 2024

Vancouver, 05 February 2024 -- While the Metro Vancouver1 market ended 2023 in balanced market territory, conditions in January began shifting back in favour of sellers as the pace of newly listed properties did not keep up with the volume of home sales.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,427 in January 2024, a 38.5% increase from the 1,030 sales recorded in January 2023. This was 20.2% below the 10-year seasonal average (1,788).

"It’s hard to believe that January sales figures came in so strong after such a quiet December, which saw many buyers and sellers delaying major decisions. If sellers don’t step off the sidelines soon, the competition among buyers could tilt the market back into sellers’ territory as the available inventory struggles to keep pace with demand." Andrew Lis, REBGV director of economics and data analytics

There were 3,788 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in January 2024. This represents a 14.5% increase compared to the 3,308 properties listed in January 2023. This was 9.1% below the 10-year seasonal average (4,166).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,633, a 9.8% increase compared to January 2023 (7,862). This is 0.3% below the 10-year seasonal average (8,657).

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for January 2024 is 17.2%. By property type, the ratio is 11.9% for detached homes, 22.9% for attached, and 19.9% for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20% over several months.

“Our 2024 forecast is calling for a two to 3% increase in prices by the end of the year, which is largely the result of demand, once again, butting up against too little inventory,” Lis said.

“If the January figures are indicative of what the spring market has in store, our forecast may already be off to an overly conservative start. Markets can shift quickly, however, and we’ll watch the February numbers to see if these early signs of strength continue, or whether they’re a blip in the data.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,161,300. This represents a 4.2% increase over January 2023 and a 0.6% decrease compared to December 2023.

Sales of detached homes in January 2024 reached 379, a 28% increase from the 296 detached sales recorded in January 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,942,400. This represents a 7.3% increase from January 2023 and a 1.1% decrease compared to December 2023.

Sales of apartment homes reached 746 in January 2024, a 30.6% increase compared to the 571 sales in January 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $751,900. This represents a 4.4% increase from January 2023 and a 0.1% increase compared to December 2023.

Attached home sales in January 2024 totalled 285, a 82.7% increase compared to the 156 sales in January 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,066,700. This represents a 4.3% increase from January 2023 and a 0.6% decrease compared to December 2023.

Alberta - January Sees Strong Sales Fueled by Boost in New Listings

City of Calgary, Feb. 1, 2024 – January sales rose to 1,650 units, a significant gain over last year's levels and long-term trends. The growth was possible thanks to a rise in new listings totalling 2,137 units in January. New listings rose for homes priced above $300,000, but the largest gains occurred for homes priced above $700,000.

The rise in new listings relative to sales did little to change the low inventory situation in the city. With 2,150 units in inventory, levels are near the January record lows set in 2006 and are nearly 49% below the long-term average for the month.

"Supply challenges have been a persistent problem since last year. This month's gain in new listings has helped provide options to potential purchasers, supporting sales growth. However, the growth in sales prevented any significant adjustments in supply, keeping conditions tight and supporting further price growth," stated Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®.

The months of supply in January was 1.3 months, falling over last month's and last year's levels. The persistent tightness in the market contributed to further upward pressure on home prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in January reached $572,300, a gain over last month and 10% higher than levels reported last January.

Detached, A boost in new listings helped support stronger sales this month. However, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 77%, there was minimal change in the low inventory situation reported in the detached sector. New listings rose for all homes priced above $500,000, but the largest gains occurred in the over $700,000 market segment. Low inventory levels compared to sales prevented any improvement in the months of supply, which at 1.4 months was lower than levels reported last month and last January.

The exceptionally tight market conditions continued to drive further price growth. In January, the unadjusted detached price reached $702,200, nearly 1% higher than last month and nearly 13% higher than prices reported last year. Year-over-year price gains ranged from a low of 10% in the City Centre and South East districts to a 27% gain in the East district of the city.

Semi-Detached, With 223 new listings and 131 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 59%, the lowest level reported since 2020 and significantly improved over the 82% average reported in 2023. The sudden shift did cause inventories to improve over the last month, but they remain well below long-term trends.

The unadjusted benchmark price in January was $625,000, slightly lower than last month but over 11% higher than last January. The monthly decline was driven mainly by adjustments in the higher-priced districts of the West and City Centre.

Row, Like other property types, new listings and sales rose in January over levels reported last month and last year. However, with 322 new listings and 297 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio remained exceptionally high at 92%. This contributed to further reductions in inventory levels, and the months of supply once again fell below one month.

Limited supply and strong demand contributed to a rise in prices. In January, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $426,400, up over last month and nearly 20% higher than levels reported in January 2023. While year-over-year prices are higher in every district, the West and City Centre districts saw unadjusted benchmark prices ease slightly over December.

Apartment Condominium, Apartment-style properties continued to see the most significant gain in sales activity, rising to 488 sales in January, a year-over-year increase of 54%. This was possible thanks to the growth in new listings. However, the gain in listings did little to supply levels; with 682 units, inventories were 40% below long-term trends.

Tight market conditions continued to contribute to further price gains. In January, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $324,000, nearly one% higher than last month and 19% higher than last January. Prices rose across all districts, with the largest year-over-year gains occurring in the most affordable districts of the North East and East.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Airdrie, Stronger detached and row sales were enough to offset pullbacks in the semi-detached and apartment sectors, causing total residential sales to increase over levels reported last January. This, in part, was possible thanks to a boost in new listings. However, the boost in new listings and sales prevented any significant shift in inventory levels, which was half of the levels typically seen in the market.

While conditions remained tight, the unadjusted benchmark price remained stable over the last month but was nearly 10% higher than levels reported in January 2023. The most substantial price gains have occurred for apartment-style homes, which are the most affordable property type.

Cochrane, Eighty-three new listings and 70 sales occurred in January, keeping the sales to new listings relatively high at 84%. This prevented any significant change in inventory levels compared to last month but caused the months of supply to fall below two months once again. The drop in the months of supply is a shift over the last four months, where the months of supply was over two months.

Despite recent tightening, the unadjusted benchmark price did ease slightly over last month’s levels. Overall, the unadjusted benchmark prices across all property types remained over 10% higher than last January.

Okotoks, Both sales and new listings rose in January compared to last month's and last year’s levels. This caused the sales to new listings ratio to fall to 75%, which was still relatively high but an improvement over the 86% average reported last year. Nonetheless, the sudden gain in new listings was insufficient to cause material changes to the low inventory levels.

With just over one month of supply, conditions remain tight in Okotoks, driving prices up. In January, the benchmark price reached $589,600, higher than last month's and year’s levels. Year-over-year price growth occurred across all property types, with gains ranging from a high of 15% for row properties to a low of six% for apartment-style homes.