Market Watch - Real Estate Market Shows Early Signs of a Buzzing Spring Market

We have seen a gradual improvement in market conditions over the past quarter. More buyers have adjusted to the higher interest rate environment. At the same time, homeowners may be anticipating an improvement in market conditions in the spring, which helps explain the marked increase in new listings so far this year. Assuming we benefit from lower borrowing costs in the near future, sales will increase further, new listings will be absorbed, and tighter market conditions will push selling prices higher.

Ontario - Market Shows Early Signs of a Buzzing Spring Market

Toronto, April 4, 2024 -- March 2024 home sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System were lower than the March 2023 result, due in part to the statutory holiday Good Friday falling in March this year versus April last year. Despite a better-supplied market compared to last year, there was enough competition between buyers to see a moderate increase in the average March home price compared to last year’s level.

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 6,560 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in March 2024 – down by 4.5% compared to March 2023. New listings were up by 15% over the same period. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales were down by 1.1%. New listings were down by 3% compared to February.

The first quarter ended with sales up by 11.2% year-over-year. New listings were up by a greater annual rate of 18.3%.

“We have seen a gradual improvement in market conditions over the past quarter. More buyers have adjusted to the higher interest rate environment. At the same time, homeowners may be anticipating an improvement in market conditions in the spring, which helps explain the marked increase in new listings so far this year. Assuming we benefit from lower borrowing costs in the near future, sales will increase further, new listings will be absorbed, and tighter market conditions will push selling prices higher,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was up by 0.3% year-over-year. The average selling price was up by 1.3% to $1,121,615. On a seasonally-adjusted month-over-month basis, the MLS® HPI Composite was up by 0.2% and the average selling price was up by 0.7% compared to February. “The average selling price edged up in comparison to last year as we moved through the first quarter of 2024. Price growth is expected to accelerate during the spring and even more so in the second half of the year, as sales growth catches up with listings growth and sellers’ market conditions start to emerge in many neighbourhoods. Lower borrowing costs in the months ahead will help fuel increased demand for ownership housing,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“As demand for ownership and rental housing increases, supply will continue to be top of mind. Governments at all levels must maintain their focus on pursuing innovative solutions to increase the amount and mix of housing supply to improve affordability. This includes removing roadblocks to non-traditional arrangements, such as co-ownership models to benefit home buyers, including first-time buyers and seniors. Encouraging gentle density, including multiplexes, is critical to helping high demand areas such as the Greater Golden Horseshoe to meet housing supply targets,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Ottawa MLS® Market Shows Early Signs of a Buzzing Spring Market

Ottawa, April 4, 2024 -- The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board totaled 1,165 units in March 2024. This was an increase of 10% from March 2023.

Home sales were 21.5% below the five-year average and 15% below the 10-year average for the month of March.

On a year-to-date basis, home sales totaled 2,678 units over the first three months of the year — an increase of 13.1% from the same period in 2023.

“Ottawa’s real estate market is overall healthy, providing fertile ground for an active spring and summer ahead,” says OREB President Curtis Fillier. “The increases in new and active listings indicate that sellers are feeling more confident, boosted by the rise in showing activity. Buyers, however, aren’t acting as quickly as they perhaps should be — likely because affordability and supply are still roadblocks.”

“Something is around the corner in this market, though,” says Fillier. “People have adjusted to post-pandemic life and that means revisiting their housing needs. Some are downsizing or moving in from the city’s outskirts. Others are looking at more suitable properties that better meet all their needs, which weren’t accessible to them in the peak pandemic market. That’s creating pressure from multiple angles on the mid-range property market, which we know is tight to begin with in Ottawa. Just because you’re in the real estate market, doesn’t mean you’re safe from the market. If you’re a buyer or seller looking to make a move, I wouldn’t wait too long.”

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.

The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $636,700 in March 2024, a gain of 2.7% from March 2023.

The benchmark price for single-family homes was $719,000, up 2.6% on a year-over-year basis in March.

By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $489,800, up slightly at 0.9% compared to a year earlier.

The benchmark apartment price was $423,200, up 4.3% from year-ago levels.

The average price of homes sold in March 2024 was $682,078 increasing 5.1% from March 2023. The more comprehensive year-to-date average price was $659,828, increasing by 3.2% from the first three months of 2023.

The dollar volume of all home sales in March 2024 was $794.6 million, up 15.6% from the same month in 2023.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Prices will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings

The number of new listings saw an increase of 13.5% from March 2023. There were 2,074 new residential listings in March 2024. New listings were 2.3% below the five-year average and 11.1% below the 10-year average for the month of March.

Active residential listings numbered 2,543 units on the market at the end of March 2024, a gain of 18.3% from March 2023. Active listings were 58.6% above the five-year average and 17.7% below the 10-year average for the month of March. Active listings haven’t been this high in the month of March in more than five years.

Months of inventory numbered 2.2 at the end of March 2024, up only slight from 2 in March 2023 and below the long-run average of 2.6 months for this time of year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

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Britsh Columbia - Residential property sales in Metro Vancouver

Metro Vancouver, 15 March 2024 -- The number of Metro Vancouver1 homes listed for sale on the MLS® rose nearly 23% year-over-year, providing more opportunity for buyers looking for a home this spring.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR)2 reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,415 in March 2024, a 4.7% decrease from the 2,535 sales recorded in March 2023. This was 31.2% below the 10-year seasonal average (3,512).

"If you’re finding the weather a little chillier than last spring, you may find some comfort in knowing that the market isn’t quite as hot as it was last spring either, particularly if you’re a buyer. Despite the welcome increase in inventory, the overall market balance continues inching deeper into sellers’ market territory, which suggests demand remains strong for well-priced and well-located properties."

Andrew Lis, GVR director of economics and data analytics

There were 5,002 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in March 2024. This represents a 15.9% increase compared to the 4,317 properties listed in March 2023. This was 9.5% below the 10-year seasonal average (5,524).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 10,552, a 22.5% increase compared to March 2023 (8,617). This is 6.3% above the 10-year seasonal average (9,923).

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for March 2024 is 23.8%. By property type, the ratio is 18.2% for detached homes, 31.3% for attached, and 25.8% for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20% over several months.

“Even though the market isn’t quite as hot as it was last year, we’re still seeing modest month-over-month price gains of one to two% happening at the aggregate level, which is an interesting dynamic given that borrowing costs remain elevated,” Lis said.

“With the latest inflation numbers trending in the right direction, it remains likely that we’ll see at least one or two modest cuts to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate in 2024, but even if these cuts come, they may not provide the boost to affordability many had been hoping for. As a result, we expect constrained borrowing power to remain a challenging headwind as we move into the summer months.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,196,800. This represents a 4.5% increase over March 2023 and a 1.1% increase compared to February 2024.

Sales of detached homes in March 2024 reached 694, a 5.4% decrease from the 734 detached sales recorded in March 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,007,900. This represents a 7.4% increase from March 2023 and a 1.8% increase compared to February 2024.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,207 in March 2024, a 7.9% decrease compared to the 1,311 sales in March 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $777,500. This represents a 5.7% increase from March 2023 and a 0.9% increase compared to February 2024.

Attached home sales in March 2024 totalled 495, a 6.2% increase compared to the 466 sales in March 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,112,800. This represents a 5% increase from March 2023 and a 1.7% increase compared to February 2024.

Alberta - March reflects a strong seller's market and price increases

City of Calgary, April 1, 2024 – March sales rose to 2,664 units, a 10% year-over-year gain and much higher than long-term trends. While new listings did pick up over last month, the 3,172 units were still below what we typically see in March and not enough relative to sales to drive any change in the supply situation. In March, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84%, and the months of supply fell below one month.

“We have not seen March conditions this tight since 2006, which is also the last time we reported high levels of interprovincial migration and a months-of-supply below one month," said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Moreover, we are entering the third consecutive year of a market favouring the seller as the two-year spike in migration has driven up demand and contributed to the drop in re-sale and rental supply. Given supply adjustments take time, it is not a surprise that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices.” 

Inventory levels have declined across properties priced below $1,000,000, with the steepest declines occurring for homes priced below $500,000. In March, there were 2,532 units in inventory, 22% lower than last year and half the levels we traditionally see in March.

In March, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price rose to $597,600, a two% gain over last month and nearly 11% higher than last year. Prices have increased across all property types, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring for the relatively more affordable row and apartment-style homes.   

March 2024 City of Calgary Housing Stats

Detached - Detached home sales rose in March but were likely limited by the level of new listings coming onto the market. New listings in March were 1,386 units, compared to the 1,151 sales, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to rise to 83%. Inventories also remained relatively stable compared to last month but were 24% lower than last year’s levels and nearly 60% lower than long-term trends for March. Inventory levels dropped across all price ranges, but the most significant fall was in the lower price point. Overall, 71% of the available inventory in March was priced above $700,000. 

Low inventories compared to sales caused the months of supply to drop below one month, driving further price gains. The unadjusted detached benchmark price rose to $739,700, a monthly gain of nearly three% and a year-over-year gain of 14%. The largest year-over-year gains occurred in the most affordable North East and East districts.

Semi-Detached - Supply availability continues to weigh on the semi-detached sector of the market. In March, 260 new listings were met with 250 sales, causing the sale-to-new listings ratio to rise to 96%. This prevented inventories from improving, and the months of supply dropped below one month. Inventory declines have been driven mainly by properties priced below $600,000.

Limited supply and growing demand drove further price gains in March. The unadjusted benchmark price reached $658,000, nearly three% higher than last month and a 14% gain over last March. Prices rose across all districts in the city, with year-over-year gains ranging from a low of 11% in the highest-priced area of the City Centre to 25% in the lowest-priced market in the East district.

Row - Both sales and new listings rose in March. However, with 536 new listings and 449 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84%, preventing any significant monthly change in inventory levels. With 355 units available, inventory levels were 12% below last year’s and 53% below long-term trends for March. The decline in inventory levels was driven by properties priced below $400,000, as inventory levels rose 35% for units priced above $400,000. 

The unadjusted benchmark price trended up in March, reaching $448,700, a monthly gain of nearly 3% and over 20% higher than levels reported at this time last year. The higher-priced City Centre reported the slowest growth in benchmark prices, with the highest growth reported in the city's most affordable districts.

Apartment Condominium - Sales in March reached 814 units, contributing to the first quarter’s record-high sales of 1,940 units, nearly 31% higher than last year. New listings also improved throughout the first three months of the year, but with a March sales-to-new-listings ratio of 82% and a months-of-supply of one month, conditions favoured apartment condominium sellers. 

Demand for lower-priced homes has supported the growth of apartment-style properties, but the tight conditions have also contributed to further price gains. In March, the benchmark prices reached $337,700, over 2% higher than last month and 17% higher than levels reported last March.