Market Watch - Home Sales Lower Compared To The Same Month Last Year

Despite the Bank of Canada rate cut at the beginning of last month, many buyers kept their home purchase decisions on hold. The market remained well-supplied, resulting in a slight dip in the average selling price compared to June 2023.

The Bank of Canada’s rate cut last month provided some initial relief for homeowners and home buyers. However, the June sales result suggests that most home buyers will require multiple rate cuts before they move off the sidelines. 

Ontario - Home Sales Lower Compared To The Same Month Last Year

Toronto, June 5, 2024 -- June home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) were lower compared to the same month last year, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). Despite the Bank of Canada rate cut at the beginning of last month, many buyers kept their home purchase decisions on hold. The market remained well-supplied, resulting in a slight dip in the average selling price compared to June 2023.

“The Bank of Canada’s rate cut last month provided some initial relief for homeowners and home buyers. However, the June sales result suggests that most home buyers will require multiple rate cuts before they move off the sidelines. This follows Ipsos polling for TRREB, which suggested that cumulative rate cuts of 100 basis points or more are required to boost home sales by any significant amount,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce.

GTA REALTORS® reported 6,213 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in June 2024 – a 16.4% decline compared to 7,429 sales reported in June 2023. New listings entered into the MLS® System amounted to 17,964 – up by 12.3% year-over-year.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down by 4.6% on a year-over-year basis in June 2024. The average selling price of $1,162,167 was down by 1.6% over the June 2023 result of $1,181,002. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price were up compared to May 2024.

“The GTA housing market is currently well-supplied. Recent home buyers have benefitted from substantial choice and therefore negotiating power on price. Moving forward, as sales pick up alongside lower borrowing costs, elevated inventory levels will help mitigate against a quick run-up in selling prices,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“Despite a temporary dip in home sales due to high interest rates, we know that strong population growth is driving long-term demand for ownership and rental housing. Ontario has set the goal of 1.5 million more homes on the ground by 2031. This is only possible if all levels of government ensure actionable solutions with sustained effort, including continuing to remove red tape, avoiding financial barriers to home construction, and minimizing housing taxes and development charges,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Ottawa’s MLS® Activity Builds After Recovering from Prior Slowdown

Ottawa, July 4, 2024 --The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) totaled 1,439 units in June 2024. This was a marginal increase of 0.1% from June 2023.

Home sales were 7.5% below the five-year average and 13.2% below the 10-year average for the month of June.

On a year-to-date basis, home sales totaled 7,109 units over the first half of the year — an increase of 4.2% from the same period in 2023.

“Ottawa continues to see steady activity as we head into the summer market,” says OREB President Curtis Fillier. “Unlike recent years, buyers have more room to wait, evaluate, and be selective when searching for the right property at the right price, leading to a slight uptick in the days on the market. Sellers are making moves as evidenced by the inventory and listings. After recovering from last year’s slowdown, Ottawa’s market performance is nearly back on par and continues to make gains.

“It’s going to be an interesting summer and next half of the year. As confidence builds, there will be ample opportunities for both parties. Now is the time for sellers to ensure their property is at its best and priced appropriately to attract buyers who remain slightly reluctant. Buyers would do well to remember that inventory levels — and competition — can swing quickly in Ottawa’s tight market.”

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.

The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $647,700 in June 2024, a decrease of 0.5% from June 2023.

The benchmark price for single-family homes was $734,300, down 0.2% on a year-over-year basis in June.

By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $501,500, down 1.6% compared to a year earlier.

The benchmark apartment price was $420,800, down 1.7% from year-ago levels.

The average price of homes sold in June 2024 was $686,535 increasing 0.5% from June 2023. The more comprehensive year-to-date average price was $681,345, increasing by 1.6% from the first six months of 2023.

The dollar volume of all home sales in June 2024 was $987.9 million, up 0.7% from June 2023.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Prices will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

The number of new listings saw an increase of 4.7% from June 2023. There were 2,469 new residential listings in June 2024. New listings were 0.8% below the five-year average and 1% below the 10-year average for the month of June.

Active residential listings numbered 3,585 units on the market at the end of June 2024, a gain of 45.5% from June 2023. Active listings were 57.8% above the five-year average and 1.9% below the 10-year average for the month of June.

Months of inventory numbered 2.5 at the end of June 2024, up from 1.7 in June 2023. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

Britsh Colombia - Home Sales Remained Below Seasonal And Historical Averages in June.

Metro Vancouver, June 5, 2024  Residential property sales in Metro Vancouver

Metro Vancouver home sales registered on the MLS® remained below seasonal and historical averages in June. With reduced competition among buyers, inventory has continued to accumulate to levels not seen since the spring of 2019.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales2 in the region totalled 2,418 in June 2024, a 19.1% decrease from the 2,988 sales recorded in June 2023. This was 23.6% below the 10-year seasonal average (3,166).

"The June data continued a trend we’ve been watching where buyers appear hesitant to transact in volumes we consider typical for this time of year, while sellers remain keen to bring their properties to market."

Andrew Lis, REBGV director of economics and data analytics

“This dynamic is bringing inventory levels up to a healthy range not seen since before the pandemic. This trend is providing buyers more selection to choose from and driving all market segments toward balanced condition."

There were 5,723 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver in June 2024. This represents a 7% increase compared to the 5,347 properties listed in June 2023. This total is 3% above the 10-year seasonal average (5,554).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 14,182, a 42% increase compared to June 2023 (9,990). This total is 20.3% above the 10-year seasonal average (11,790).

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for June 2024 is 17.6%. By property type, the ratio is 13.1% for detached homes, 21.1% for attached, and 20.3% for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20% over several months.

“With an interest rate announcement from the Bank of Canada in July, there is a possibility of another cut to the policy rate this summer. This is yet another factor tilting the market in favour of buyers, even if the boost to affordability is modest,” Lis said.

“But June’s lower-than-normal transaction volumes suggest many buyers remain hesitant, which has allowed inventory to accumulate and has kept a lid on upward price pressure across market segments.

"With that said, the transaction-level data do show that well-priced properties are still selling quickly, suggesting astute buyers are able to spot value and act when opportunities arise.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,207,100. This represents a 0.5% increase over June 2023 and a 0.4% decrease compared to May 2024.

Sales of detached homes in June 2024 reached 694, a 18.2% decrease from the 848 detached sales recorded in June 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,061,000. This represents a 3.7% increase from June 2023 and a 0.1% decrease compared to May 2024.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,245 in June 2024, a 20.9% decrease compared to the 1,573 sales in June 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $773,400. This represents a 1% increase from June 2023 and a 0.4% decrease compared to May 2024.

Attached home sales in June 2024 totalled 456, a 16.6% decrease compared to the 547 sales in June 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse3 is $1,138,100. This represents a 3% increase from June 2023 and a 0.6% decrease compared to May 2024.

Alberta - June sales decline amid supply challenges and rising prices

Calgary, July 2, 2024 — Sales in June reached 2,738, marking a 13 percent decline from last year’s record high. Although sales improved for homes priced above $700,000, it was not enough to offset the declines reported in the lower price ranges. Despite the easing in June sales, they remain over 17 percent higher than long-term trends.

“The pullback in sales reflects supply challenges in the lower price ranges, ultimately limiting sales activity,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Inventory in the lower price ranges of each property type continue to fall, providing limited choices for potential purchasers looking for more affordable product. It also continues to be a competitive market for some buyers with over 40% of the homes sold selling over list price.”

This month, new listings also eased relative to sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to remain elevated at 72%. Inventory levels did improve over last year’s low levels, primarily due to gains in the higher price ranges. However, with 3,789 units available, levels remain 40% lower than long-term trends.

The modest change in inventory levels helped increase the months of supply. However, at 1.4 months, conditions continue to favor sellers. Persistently tight conditions drove further price gains this month. In June, the unadjusted benchmark price rose to $608,000, a gain over last month and nearly nine% higher than last year. Prices rose across all districts, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring in the North East and East districts.

Detached - Gains in higher-priced detached home sales were not enough to offset the pullbacks for homes priced below $700,000, leading to a 16% year-over-year sales drop. Despite the recent pullback, detached home sales for the first half of the year remain in line with levels reported last year. Meanwhile, following several months of gains, new listings eased this month. By the end of June, there were 1,775 detached homes in inventory, an improvement over last year but 45% below long-term trends for the month.

While conditions remain tight in the detached market, we are starting to see better supply and demand balances in the upper end of the market. The months of supply have ranged from a low of one month in the most affordable East district to just over two months in the City Centre. Nonetheless, with less than one and a half months of supply, we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In June, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $767,600, nearly one% higher than last month and 12% higher than prices reported last June.

Semi-Detached - Following a significant gain last month, new listings pulled back in June relative to sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to rise to 76%. While this did not prevent some gains in inventory levels, inventory levels remained nearly half of those traditionally seen in June.

With just over one month of supply, we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In June, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $686,100, a one% gain over last month and over 12% higher than levels reported last year. Prices rose across all districts in the city, with the steepest gains occurring in the most affordable areas of the North East and East districts.

Row - Like other property types, row home sales slowed in June relative to the high levels achieved over the past two years. A higher pullback in sales compared to new listings caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to fall to 75%, the lowest June level reported since 2021.

However, conditions remain exceptionally tight with one month of supply, especially for properties priced below $600,000. The unadjusted benchmark price trended up in June, reaching $464,600, nearly 17% higher than levels reported last year at this time. While price adjustments have varied depending on location, we continue to see the highest price growth occurring in the most affordable districts. 

Apartment Condominium - There were 791 sales in June, a nearly eight% decline over last year. The decline in sales was primarily due to the significant pullback for units priced below $300,000. Limited supply choice for lower priced products is preventing stronger sales activity. Despite the monthly pullback, year-to-date apartment sales are up by 13%, and are at record-high levels.

New listings continue to rise relative to sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to fall and driving further inventory gains. However, much of the supply growth has occurred for higher-priced properties, resulting in tight conditions at the lower end of the market and more balanced conditions for higher-priced units. Overall prices continued to trend up this month, reaching $344,700, over 17% higher than last year.